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Fall 2023 weather forecast for Nashville

Prepare for fall weather in Nashville, TN with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.

A tree with orange leaves with Bicentennial Capitol Mall State Park steps in the background as the sun sets.

Fall is on the way, weather you like it or not.

Photo by @cesar_virto

Table of Contents

We know the question on your mind, Music City — when’s it going to get cool? Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for September, October, and November. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what fall will bring.

Reminder: The first day of fall is on Saturday, Sept. 23.

A graphic of the United States with shades of orange indicating above normal temperatures for fall.

Here’s what we can expect this fall.

Graphic via NOAA

🌡️ Temperature

Think warm. This fall, Nashville has a 33-40% chance of temperatures being higher than normal.

🌨️ Precipitation

Expect slightly more precipitation. Nashville has a 33-40% chance of seeing higher than average rainfall amounts this fall.

Savor September

Typically in Nashville, September’s temperatures fluctuate between an average low of 62.8° and an average high of 81.5°, but expect to see more of those near-80° days this year. If you aren’t a fan of the heat, we have some good news: The average high will drop ~5.9° in September. Pro tip: September has an average daily maximum UV index of 5, so don’t slack on the sunscreen.

Spend October outdoors

In October, the average high and low temps are between 69.8° and 50.7°. This is the city’s least humid month — we’re already sighing with relief. Take advantage of the agreeable temps with a visit to 12 South’s Nashville Pumpkin Company while sipping a seasonal latte from White Bison.

November numbers

Historically, average highs in November drop ~12° to 57.4°, with an average low of 40.3°. It’s also usually the first month past summer to see any snowfall — but with a greater chance of high temps this year, that might not happen. Bonus: Though Nashville is expected to see more rainfall this fall, November is the month with the least amount of rainfall historically — only averaging ~1.77 inches.

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